40 (ZD๎.XU\รกRZLF]
UHVSRQG๎ H[SOLFLWO\๎ DQG๎ DFFXUDWHO\๎ WR๎ WKH๎ TXHVWLRQ๎ RI๎ ZKDW๎
JRRG๎DFWXDOO\๎PHDQV๎๎:KLOH๎D๎JHQHUDO๎GRFWULQH๎IRU๎WKH๎IXQF๎
WLRQLQJ๎RI๎WKH๎ZRUG๎H[LVWV๎๎LW๎LV๎QRW๎DOZD\V๎SRVVLEOH๎WR๎GLVWLQ๎
JXLVK๎ZKHWKHU๎LW๎UHODWHV๎WR๎IDFW๎RU๎WR๎YDOXH๎๎)RU๎HWKLFV๎LWVHOI๎ยฑ๎
NQRZOHGJH๎GHGLFDWHG๎WR๎JRRG๎ยฑ๎UHODWHV๎WR๎ยณGRLQJ๎WKLQJV๎ZKLFK๎
DUH๎JRRG๎DQG๎WKHRUHWLFDOO\๎ZH๎NQRZ๎WKDW๎WKLV๎LV๎H[DFWO\๎KRZ๎
ZH๎ZLVK๎WR๎DFW๎ยซ๎2XU๎GLOHPPDV๎LQ๎SUDFWLFH๎DSSHDU๎ZKHQ๎ZH๎
UHDOLVH๎ WKDW๎ GLIIHUHQW๎ SHRSOH๎ OHQG๎ RQH๎ ยตJRRG๎ WKLQJยถ๎ JUHDWHU๎
ZHLJKW๎WKDQ๎DQRWKHUยด๎>๎@๎๎7KLV๎EUHHGV๎FRQIOLFWV๎๎DQG๎PXVW๎
)RU๎ FRQIOLFW๎ LV๎ D๎ VWDWH๎ RI๎ GLIIHUHQFH๎ DQG๎ GLVVRQDQFH๎
EHWZHHQ๎ LQFRPSDWLEOH๎ RU๎ FRQWUDGLFWRU\๎ HOHPHQWV๎๎ WKH๎
UHVXOW๎ RI๎ D๎ FODVK๎ RI๎ FRQWUDU\๎ LQWHUHVWV๎๎ ,W๎ LV๎ ERWK๎ ยณRSHQ๎
FRPEDW๎๎๎๎๎OLNH๎D๎VWUXJJOH๎RI๎RSSRVLQJ๎IRUFHV๎ยซ๎,W๎UHVXOWV๎
XVXDOO\๎ IURP๎ GLIIHUHQFHV๎ LQ๎ WKH๎ JRDOV๎๎ DVVXPSWLRQV๎ RU๎
H[SHFWDWLRQV๎RI๎LQGLYLGXDOV๎RU๎JURXSV๎๎,W๎DOVR๎DSSHDUV๎ DV๎๎
D๎UHVXOW๎RI๎FRPSHWLWLRQ๎IRU๎VSHFLILF๎UHVRXUFHV๎RU๎DV๎D๎UHVXOW๎
RI๎FRQWUDGLFWLRQยด๎>๎@๎
7KHUH๎LV๎D๎TXHVWLRQ๎RI๎ZKDW๎ERWK๎LQWXLWLYHO\๎GHVLUHG๎DQG๎
H[SHFWHG๎FRKHVLRQ๎LQ๎DFWLYLW\๎DQG๎FRKHVLRQ๎LQ๎PRUDO๎UHIOHF๎
WLRQ๎FRQVLVW๎LQ๎๎WKH๎DQVZHU๎OHDGV๎WKH๎SKLORVRSKHU๎GLUHFWO\๎WR๎
WKH๎SURPLVH๎RI๎WKH๎VWDWHPHQW๎WKDW๎LW๎LV๎FRQIOLFW๎ZKLFK๎LV๎WKH๎
EDVLF๎ IDFW๎ RI๎ PRUDOLW\
๎
๎๎ (DV\๎ PRYHPHQW๎ DFURVV๎ WKH๎ YDOXH๎
V\VWHP๎ LQ๎ DUFKLWHFWXUDO๎ SUDFWLFH๎ LV๎ WKHUHIRUH๎ PRUH๎ GHWHU๎
PLQHG๎E\๎EURDG๎DQDO\VLV๎RI๎SRVVLEOH๎FRQIOLFWV๎WKDQ๎E\๎IRU๎
PXODWLRQ๎RI๎D๎FRGH๎RI๎SULQFLSOHV๎IRU๎FRQGXFW๎๎,W๎VKRXOG๎EH๎
REVHUYHG๎๎KRZHYHU๎๎WKDW๎RQ๎SUHFLVHO\๎WKLV๎ODVW๎SODQH๎D๎ODFN๎
RI๎FRKHVLRQ๎LQ๎PRUDO๎UHIOHFWLRQ๎๎DQG๎LQ๎SDUWLFXODU๎GHFODUHG๎
DQG๎SRVWXODWHG๎PRUDO๎DWWLWXGHV๎ZLWK๎WKH๎UHDO๎DFWLRQV๎RI๎LQGL๎
YLGXDOV๎DQG๎JURXSV๎๎LV๎WKH๎IDFWRU๎ZKLFK๎HVSHFLDOO\๎ORZHUV๎
WKH๎LPDJH๎RI๎WKH๎DUFKLWHFW๎DQG๎OHYHO๎RI๎HWKLFV๎LQ๎WKH๎SURIHV๎
VLRQ๎๎ )RU๎ ZH๎ OHDUQ๎ HWKLFDO๎ VWDQFHV๎ WKURXJK๎ LPLWDWLRQ๎๎ DV๎
$ULVWRWOH๎ VWDWHG๎๎ QRW๎ GRFWULQH๎๎$๎ ODUJH๎ SDUW๎ RI๎ RXU๎ HWKLFDO๎
FRQYLFWLRQV๎ LV๎ D๎ SDUW๎ RI๎ RXU๎ WHPSHUDPHQW๎๎ FKDUDFWHU๎ DQG๎
XSEULQJLQJ๎๎ ยณ,๎ XVXDOO\๎ GR๎ ZKDW๎ ,๎ UHJDUG๎ DV๎ JRRG๎๎ )URP๎
ZKHUH๎GRHV๎WKLV๎FRQYLFWLRQ๎FRPH"๎)URP๎ZKHUH๎GR๎,๎GUDZ๎
WKH๎LQIRUPDWLRQ๎IRU๎LW"๎7KH๎UHVSRQVH๎ZKLFK๎,๎ZLVK๎WR๎JLYH๎
KHUH๎LV๎WKDW๎,๎GUDZ๎WKLV๎IURP๎KDELWยด๎>๎๎๎S๎๎๎๎๎@๎๎ 7KH๎WHUP๎
ยตKDELWยถ๎LV๎KHUH๎FORVH๎WR๎WKH๎WHUP๎ยตHWKRVยถ๎๎ZKLFK๎GHVFULEHV๎WKH๎
VXP๎RI๎WKH๎YDOXHV๎E\๎ZKLFK๎ZH๎DUH๎SHUVXDGHG๎๎ZKLFK๎ZHUH๎
LQVWLOOHG๎LQ๎XV๎๎LQ๎ZKLFK๎ZH๎EHOLHYH๎๎WKRXJK๎LW๎LV๎GLIILFXOW๎IRU๎
XV๎WR๎VD\๎DW๎RQFH๎KRZ๎HYHU\๎GHWDLO๎RI๎RXU๎HWKRV๎ZDV๎VKDSHG๎๎
6DPXHO๎%XWOHU๎๎UHIHUUHG๎WR๎HDUOLHU๎๎VWDWHV๎VLPSO\๎LQ๎/LIH๎DQG๎
+DELW๎๎H[DFWO\๎๎๎๎๎\HDUV๎ROG๎๎WKDW๎ZH๎DUH๎PRVW๎IRUFHIXOO\๎
FRQYLQFHG๎RI๎WKRVH๎WKLQJV๎ ZKLFK๎ZH๎KDYH๎FHDVHG๎WR๎FRQ๎
VLGHU๎SULQFLSOHV๎๎DQG๎KDYH๎VR๎DEVRUEHG๎WKHP๎WKDW๎ZH๎FHDVH๎
WR๎FRQVLGHU๎WKHP๎DW๎DOO๎ยฑ๎WKH\๎DUH๎SDUW๎RI๎XV๎๎$OO๎SULQFLSOHV๎๎
KH๎WKRXJKW๎๎HWKLFDO๎SULQFLSOHV๎LQFOXGHG๎๎VKRXOG๎EH๎DEVRUEHG๎
UDWKHU๎WKDQ๎LPSRVHG
๎
๎๎%XWOHU๎VWUHVVHG๎LQ๎KLV๎ZRUN๎WKDW๎ยณDV๎
PDQ\๎SHRSOH๎ZHUH๎UXLQHG๎E\๎SULQFLSOHV๎DV๎E\๎GHVLUH๎WR๎SRV๎
VHVV๎WKHPยด๎>๎๎๎S๎๎๎๎๎@๎๎7KLV๎DORQH๎ LV๎ZDUQLQJ๎DJDLQVW๎WKH๎
IRUPXODWLRQ๎RI๎D๎FRGH๎RI๎PRUDO๎SULQFLSOHV๎๎ZKLFK๎HDFK๎PD\๎
LOOXVWUDWH๎ZLWK๎REVHUYDWLRQV๎RI๎KLVWRU\๎DQG๎RWKHU๎SHRSOH๎๎EXW๎
DOVR๎RI๎WKHPVHOYHV๎๎,I๎ZH๎FRQVLGHU๎WKDW๎ZKLFK๎SKLORVRSKHUV๎
๎
๎2I๎WKLV๎%HUQDUG๎:LOOLDPV๎SURPLVHV๎GLVFHUQPHQW๎>๎@๎๎7KLV๎DXWKRU๎
PDNHV๎ QR๎ DWWHPSW๎ HYHQ๎ DW๎ DQ๎ DQDO\VLV๎๎ DZDLWLQJ๎ WKH๎ RSSRUWXQLW\๎ WR๎
DFTXDLQW๎KHUVHOI๎ZLWK๎VXFK๎LQ๎IXUWKHU๎SXEOLFDWLRQV๎E\๎:LOOLDPV๎
๎
๎๎ $Q๎ DQDO\VLV๎ DQG๎ DVVRFLDWLRQ๎ RI๎ DQDO\VHV๎ E\๎ 6๎๎ %XWOHU๎ DQG๎ *๎๎
'HOHX]H๎๎DIWHU๎$QGUHZ๎%DOODQW\QH๎>๎๎๎S๎๎๎๎๎@๎
KDYH๎REVHUYHG๎RI๎WKH๎HVRWHULFLVP๎RI๎LQGLYLGXDOV๎DEVRUELQJ๎
YDOXHV๎๎DFFHSWDQFH๎RI๎WKH๎LQHYLWDELOLW\๎RI๎FRQIOLFW๎ZLQV๎DGGL๎
WLRQDO๎UHDVRQLQJ๎๎0RUHRYHU๎๎LPSRVLWLRQ๎RI๎YDOXHV๎LQ๎WKH๎๎๎
VW
๎
FHQWXU\๎KDV๎WKH๎ZKLII๎RI๎SURSDJDQGD๎๎,W๎LV๎DOWRJHWKHU๎GLIIHU๎
HQW๎๎ KRZHYHU๎๎ WR๎ WHDFK๎ DWWDLQPHQW๎ RI๎ WKDW๎ LQGHSHQGHQW๎
MXGJHPHQW๎KHOG๎LQ๎KLJK๎FXOWXUH๎๎1RU๎GRHV๎FULWLFLVP๎RI๎WKH๎
LPSRVLWLRQ๎RI๎D๎V\VWHP๎RI๎YDOXHV๎FRQVWLWXWH๎WKH๎DVVHQW๎RI๎WKH๎
DXWKRU๎WR๎WKHLU๎UHODWLYLVDWLRQ๎RU๎QHJRWLDELOLW\
๎
๎๎$SSUDLVDO๎RI๎
YDOXHV๎PD\๎WDNH๎SODFH๎LQ๎D๎PDQQHU๎XQIRUFHG๎๎WKURXJK๎WKH๎
ยตDEVRUSWLRQยถ๎ SRVWXODWHG๎๎WKURXJK๎VWXG\๎RI๎WKH๎YLUWXHV๎FRQ๎
WDLQHG๎DQG๎GHVFULEHG๎LQ๎WKH๎FODVVLFV๎ยฑ๎LQ๎ZRUNV๎EHLQJ๎DEDQ๎
GRQHG๎LQ๎VFKRROV๎DW๎SUHVHQW๎๎DQG๎XQQHFHVVDULO\๎๎XQGHU๎WKH๎
SUHVVXUH๎ RI๎ PDVV๎ FXOWXUH๎๎ 7KHVH๎ ZRUNV๎ FRQWDLQ๎ PXOWLSOH๎
WLPHOHVV๎UHIHUHQFHV๎WR๎WUXH๎YDOXHV๎DQG๎YLUWXHV
๎
๎>๎@๎๎$๎ SHU๎
VXDVLRQ๎ WR๎ YDOXHV๎ LQ๎ ZKLFK๎ ZHOO๎HGXFDWHG๎ DUFKLWHFWV๎ FRQ๎
VFLRXV๎RI๎WKH๎GLYHUVLW\๎DYDLODEOH๎EHOLHYH๎PXVW๎WKHUHIRUH๎EH๎
DVVXPSWLRQ๎QXPEHU๎RQH๎IRU๎D๎SURIHVVLRQ๎LQ๎ZKLFK๎๎DV๎KDV๎
EHHQ๎VDLG๎๎WKH\๎IRUP๎D๎FRQGLWLRQ๎VLQH๎TXD๎QRQ๎
&RQIOLFWV๎LQ๎WKH๎VSKHUH๎RI๎PRUDOLW\๎DSSHDU๎LQ๎DUFKLWHFWXUH๎
QRW๎RQO\๎DV๎D๎FODVK๎RI๎YDOXHV๎๎KRZHYHU๎๎EXW๎DOVR๎LQ๎WKH๎DUHD๎RI๎
PRWLYDWLRQ๎๎7KH๎ILUVW๎EDVLF๎ILHOG๎RI๎FRQIOLFW๎IRU๎WKH๎DUFKLWHFW๎
DUH๎WKRVH๎PRWLYDWLRQV๎OHDGLQJ๎WR๎DFTXLVLWLRQ๎RI๎D๎FRQWUDFW๎DQG๎
WKH๎FRQGLWLRQLQJ๎RI๎LWV๎H[HFXWLRQ๎๎$Q๎DUFKLWHFW๎๎HVSHFLDOO\๎RQH๎
UHVSRQVLEOH๎IRU๎WKH๎SHRSOH๎ZLWK๎ZKRP๎KH๎RU๎VKH๎ZRUNV๎DQG๎
ZLVKLQJ๎WR๎SURYLGH๎IRU๎WKHP๎๎RIIHUV๎ZRUN๎ยฑ๎WKH๎GHVLJQ๎๎7KLV๎๎
RSWLPDOO\๎๎LV๎D๎VXP๎RI๎LGHDV๎EDVHG๎ RQ๎WKH๎LGHDOV๎SURIHVVHG๎๎
7KH๎DUFKLWHFW๎WKXV๎RIIHUV๎D๎ยตVHOIยถ๎๎KLV๎RU๎KHU๎RZQ๎ยฑ๎WKRXJK๎QRW๎
VHOIOHVVO\๎๎ 7KHUH๎ WKHQ๎ DSSHDUV๎ WKDW๎ EDVLF๎ FRQIOLFW๎๎ WKH๎ VHOI๎
VHHNLQJ๎EHQHIDFWRU๎RI๎YDOXHV๎๎0RUDOO\๎LW๎UHDGV๎EDGO\๎๎<HW๎LQ๎
WKH๎VLWXDWLRQ๎GHVFULEHG๎WKH๎YDOXHV๎ZLWKLQ๎WKH๎GHVLJQ๎DUH๎QRW๎
WKH๎ REMHFW๎ RI๎ WKH๎ VDOH๎๎ EXW๎ WKH๎ FRQWHQW๎ RI๎ WKLV๎ REMHFW๎๎ 7KH๎
PRWLYDWLRQ๎ RI๎ WKH๎ DUFKLWHFW๎ LV๎ WKH๎ ZLOOLQJQHVV๎ WR๎ SHUIRUP๎
VHUYLFHV๎ IRU๎ WKH๎ FOLHQW๎๎ ZLWKLQ๎ WKH๎ UXOHV๎ HVWDEOLVKHG๎ IRU๎WKH๎
SURIHVVLRQ๎๎7KHVH๎UXOHV๎JUDQW๎WKH๎RSWLRQ๎RI๎UHPXQHUDWLRQ๎IRU๎
WKH๎ZRUN๎RIIHUHG๎๎KHQFH๎VXFK๎FRQIOLFW๎RXJKW๎QRW๎WR๎EH๎GHWHFW๎
HG๎KHUH๎๎,W๎LV๎QRQHWKHOHVV๎YLVLEOH๎LQ๎3RODQG๎LQ๎๎IRU๎LQVWDQFH๎๎
HPEDUUDVVLQJO\๎ORZ๎UHPXQHUDWLRQV๎LQ๎FRPSHWLWLRQV๎๎ZKHUH๎LW๎
LV๎ H[SHFWHG๎ WKDW๎ WKH๎ SRWHQWLDO๎ JLYHQ๎ DUFKLWHFWV๎ WR๎ DUWLFXODWH๎
๎
๎7KH๎FRQVHUYDWLYH๎SKLORVRSKHU๎5RJHU๎6FUXWRQ๎GHYRWHV๎D๎YHU\๎LQWHU๎
HVWLQJ๎HVVD\๎WR๎WKLV๎๎HQWLWOHG๎ยต&XOWXUH๎&RXQWV๎๎)DLWK๎DQG๎)HHOLQJ๎LQ๎D๎:RUOG๎
%HVLHJHGยถ๎>๎@๎๎:KLOH๎WKH๎DXWKRU๎GRHV๎QRW๎DJUHH๎ZLWK๎VRPH๎WKHVHV๎RI๎WKLV๎
HVVD\๎๎H๎J๎๎WKRVH๎FRQFHUQLQJ๎DSSUDLVDO๎RI๎/H๎&RUEXVLHU๎๎WKLV๎GLVTXLVLWLRQ๎RQ๎
D๎UHWXUQ๎WR๎WLPHOHVV๎ZRUNV๎LQ๎WKH๎VKDSLQJ๎RI๎DWWLWXGHV๎DQG๎MXGJHPHQWV๎LV๎
RQH๎ZKLFK๎LV๎FORVH๎WR๎KHU๎
๎
๎0D\๎DQ๎H[DPSOH๎RI๎WKLV๎EH๎DQ๎H[FHUSW๎RI๎WKH๎/DWLQ๎SURVH๎SUHVHQW๎
LQ๎WKH๎ERRNV๎RI๎7DGHXV]๎.RWDUELฤVNL๎๎XQIRUWXQDWHO\๎QRW๎VWXGLHG๎LQ๎DUFKL๎
WHFWXUH๎DW๎KLJKHU๎HGXFDWLRQDO๎LQVWLWXWLRQV๎
(VWR๎ERQXV๎PLOHV๎๎WXWRU๎ERQXV๎๎DUELWHU๎LGHP
,QWHJHU๎๎DPELJXDH๎VL๎TXDQGR๎YRFDEHUH๎WHVWLV
,QFHUWDHTXH๎UHL๎๎3KDODULV๎OLFHW๎LPSHUHW๎XW๎VLV
)DOVXV๎HW๎DGPRWR๎GLFWHW๎SHULXULD๎WDXUR๎
6XPPXP๎FUHGH๎QHIDV๎DQLPDP๎SUDHIHUUH๎SXGRUL
(W๎SURSWHU๎YLWDP๎YLYHQGL๎SHUGHUH๎FDXVDV๎
๎%H๎D๎EUDYH๎VROGLHU๎๎D๎EUDYH๎FDUHU๎๎D๎IODZOHVV๎MXGJH๎๎,I๎HYHU๎WKH\๎VXP๎
PRQ๎\RX๎DV๎ZLWQHVV๎WR๎VXSSRUW๎DQ๎DPELJXRXV๎DQG๎GXELRXV๎PDWWHU๎๎ ZHUH๎
HYHQ๎3KDODULV๎KLPVHOI๎WR๎GHPDQG๎RI๎\RX๎IDOVHKRRGV๎DQG๎๎WKUHDWHQLQJ๎WRU๎
WXUH๎๎ GLFWDWH๎ WHVWLPRQ\๎ DV๎ ZRXOG๎ EH๎ SHUMXU\๎๎ KDYH๎ DV๎ WKH๎ XOWLPDWH๎ LQ๎
ZLFNHGQHVV๎WKH๎SODFLQJ๎RI๎VXUYLYDO๎DERYH๎YLUWXH๎DQG๎EH๎QRW๎ZLOOLQJ๎WR๎
UHWDLQ๎OLIH๎DW๎FRVW๎RI๎ORVLQJ๎WKDW๎IRU๎ZKLFK๎DORQH๎OLYLQJ๎LV๎ZRUWKZKLOH๎๎
,Q๎๎7DGHXV]๎ .RWDUELฤVNL๎๎ยต=DVDG\๎ HW\NL๎ QLH]DOHฤชQHMยถ๎ LQ๎๎ 3UREOHP\๎
HW\NL๎๎ :\EyU๎ WHNVWyZ๎๎ FRPSLOHG๎ E\๎ 6๎๎ 6DUQRZVNL๎ DQG๎ (๎๎ )U\FNRZVNL๎๎
$JHQFMD๎PDUNHWLQJRZD๎%UDQWD๎๎%\GJRV]F]๎๎๎๎๎๎๎๎S๎๎๎๎๎๎