Issue 3(47)/2016
Table of contents
Open table of contents
- Tadeusz Zipser - Prediction of states, modelling of processes and building the decision
- Magdalena Mlek-Galewska - Influence of functional connections network on polycentric structure of Poland – simulation research
- Tomasz Ossowicz - Forecasting of moving out inhabitants and various activities from their spaces
- Wawrzyniec Zipser - Forecasting urban renewal actions in the cities
- Michał Krygier - ORION model potential in research on the location of the commercial enterprises – an example of simulation research
- Maria Kamińska-Zabierowska, Maciej Kamiński - Comparison of contact distribution models with a stochastic ordering approach
- Marzena H. Heliak - Analyses of transport systems applying the intervening opportunities model and predictive research methods in the process of teaching – selected issues
Articles
Tadeusz Zipser - Prediction of states, modelling of processes and building the decision
doi:10.5277/arc160301
The paper discusses a certain section of the field of research with strong links to the practical tasks of spatial planning. Spatial planning is seen here as finding the best possible forms of structure, defined as the distribution of elements and organization of connections between them for a system that forms our current civilization. We present here a range of approaches proven in decades of activity of the Spatial Planning Department at the Wrocław University of Science and Technology emphasizing especially the quantitative techniques of simulation modelling. On the one hand, it takes into account the presence of spontaneous large-scale operating mechanisms striving for their equilibrium states. On the other hand, it seeks to analyze the process of inquiry into certain decisions taken by the user of the civilization system controlling its foundation and desiderata from their objective justification point of view and the real probability of their realization.
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Magdalena Mlek-Galewska - Influence of functional connections network on polycentric structure of Poland – simulation research
doi:10.5277/arc160302
The National Spatial Development Concept 2030 relates to the polycentric development idea to be the main mechanism of strengthening the integrity of Polish space and the diffusion of growth processes. It identifies main cities on various levels of hierarchy, and the network of functional links between them. Models of such settlement structures were examined using the simulation intervening opportunity model. The functional network influence on the attractiveness of main cities and peripheral areas was evaluated. In regard to the most invested areas the effects of integration of polycentric Polish settlement structure were proven, moreover a weak influence on peripheries was observed.
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Tomasz Ossowicz - Forecasting of moving out inhabitants and various activities from their spaces
doi:10.5277/arc160303
Simulations of the spatial model of the distribution process of moving out of inhabitants and various activities from their spaces in the cities by means of the ORION model are presented. Also presented are simulations for city of Łódź and are delineated, also presented are deliberations onthe relation between movement out of inhabitants from their places and the process of the city shrinking.
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Wawrzyniec Zipser - Forecasting urban renewal actions in the cities
doi:10.5277/arc160304
The paper elaborates on urban renewal activities in the city scale systemic approach. It describes how to use the decision-simulation model ORION to predict the effects of regeneration programs. It shows an example of the use of the model to forecast the development in the city of Łódź, taking into account urban renewal actions.
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Michał Krygier - ORION model potential in research on the location of the commercial enterprises – an example of simulation research
doi:10.5277/arc160305
The main purpose of the article is to present a potential of the decision-simulation ORION model in the commercial use for supporting decisions about the detailed location of a company. In the first part of the article basic concepts of the location theory and issues in research location are discussed; the fundamental part of the article approaches the basic mechanisms, procedures and parameters contained in the ORION model, with a special emphasis on interpretation and possibilities of applications in commercial research. In the last part of the article, in reference to the cited aspects and theory, an example of a theoretical simulation research for the optimal location of a bakery is presented. The article is addressed first of all to entrepreneurs, activists, local government units, scientists as well as researchers dealing with location problems, spatial planning, economics and simulation.
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Maria Kamińska-Zabierowska, Maciej Kamiński - Comparison of contact distribution models with a stochastic ordering approach
doi:10.5277/arc160306
No universal method for comparing contact models is known. Models we met in literature are usually stated by a complicated mathematical formula, which does not provide any information about the model’s specific behaviour, although it characterizes the model. In this paper the authors present their own way of comparing contact models. We run models in analytic theory on ideal theoretical distributions. Thanks to this we are able to compare multiple models and their behaviour in terms of arriving distribution or short/long trips preferences. We use stochastic ordering approach for fractions of completed contacts as the criterion for comparing models. The presented idea seems to be a good alternative to a comparison based on the model’s output for fixed city instances. Comparison is made for production constrained and intervening opportunity models. The results for chosen distributions show that, even if both models differ much in their assumptions, they can give very similar outputs.
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Marzena H. Heliak - Analyses of transport systems applying the intervening opportunities model and predictive research methods in the process of teaching – selected issues
doi:10.5277/arc160307
The article characterises selected issues and problems included in the teaching process of the course “Techniques of transport analyses and forecasts” at the studies in Spatial Planning Faculty of Architecture at Wrocław University of Science and Technology. Examples of such as Łódź, Opole, Wałbrzych and Wrocław were used to present and analyse selected issues related to the concept of the intervening opportunities model applied in the model approach to spatial phenomena at urban settlement structures. The course covered also the experiment undertaken to assess the urban traffic applying the research method developed by prof. Tadeusz Zipser.
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